I see no reason to change that, however I am not sure how TiVo reports Lifetime transfers in the GA/Churn numbers. I think TiVo did a decent number of these and if so, GAs and Churns could be slightly higher if they report it that way.
For the quarter, TiVo was stuck with the same problems it has had for some time. No boxes people want to buy, especially at the (all-in) price/terms. Too much uncertainty about the future usability of those units, though personally I downplay that issue a bit.
No Gross Adds are included for TiVo HD since TiVo says they won’t ship until August.
TiVo’s third quarter looks better to me. I think 65-85K gross adds are possible with the new TiVo HD helping offset some of the S2 declines. I am optimistic about the upper region of that range what with the launch at the beginning of the QTR and the initial (retail/box) price being reasonable. Still, all the same issues come up again; (all-in) price/terms, SDV …
A positive I haven’t fully factored in is the new availability of MSD monthly pricing from TiVo.com. Lifetime offers/sales could also help results.
If the new CMO turns out to be any good, he may be able to affect Q3 positively a bit. TiVo seems more active on the marketing front, and what I have seen lately is better than the past (but that doesn’t mean its good or won’t be a waste of money in the end.)
Another thing to consider is the availability of TTG/MRV (S3) which could happen during Q3. I believe there is substantial pent up demand for boxes pending S3 transfers, dependent of course on what is enabled, so I’ll update when whatever it is is official.
In the meantime, TiVo is loaded with all the S3s they are going to need through early 2008:
Jim Denny, vice president of product marketing for TiVo said he was unsure if TiVo was building new Series3 boxes, but believes existing inventory should keep the device available through the start of 2008.