Judgement Day for TiVo

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This afternoon at 5pm EST TiVo will release its Q3 earnings results (10/31.) TiVo announced on 11/29/05, so they are right on schedule, which tends to indicate expected or positive news is more likely than negative news.

TiVo will have almost two months of S3 sales and the S2DT has been around plenty long to show results. Their marketing plan, which changed again a couple of days into Q4, has had more than enough time to mature and show results. So far it has not looked good, but maybe there will be something to cheer?

So what to look for? 100K+ Gross Sub Adds would show some grip to the marketing effort, but expect 90-95K, with 85K or below a disappointment. More than 10K Series 3s would be terrific, but expect closer to 9K. Whether TiVo will break out the numbers on models is unkown, but we’d like to see S3 numbers (and DT mix would be nice too, with some prior comps.)

SAC might be near $400, but its a tough call and depends on GAs and other factors. It will be much higher than last year’s $308, and probably not less than $350.

The big question in the results will be how much did it cost to get the Gross Adds to where they ended up? That will tell us a great deal about the marketing performance.

What will happen with DTV Subs? Figure a much bigger drop than the 29K in Q2. If its under 50K, its not bad, over 100K is ugly.

As for Churn, don’t expect much change. Yes the one year commitments started expiring in September, but only a small creep upward is likely for now.

Rather get into too much other detail, I’ll wait for the results and the conference call and get back to y’all.

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