Comments on TiVo from the Financial Community


 Clipped from DJ News:

Rob Sanderson of American Technology Research, who reiterated his neutral rating on the stock, called the forecast “disappointing,” and said that while TiVo’s DVR offers “industry-leading features,” it faces a series of challenges, including competition, and that its litigation against satellite provider EchoStar Communications (DISH) represents a treacherous “swing factor” that could have a negative impact.

“Outside of court, it seems the company is either in a lengthy transition period awaiting the ramp up of cable partners like [Comcast], or is on its way to terminal decline. Neither company-saving factor can be controlled by management,” Sanderson said in a note to clients.


Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, who rates TiVo as underperform, wrote: “TiVo’s strategy to grow [subscribers] seems to change on a regular basis. We believe the company is still struggling to find a way to grow the base in the face of generic digital video recording competition.”


S&P’s take:


S&P Marketscope – November 30, 2006 11:24 AM ET

Oct-Q $0.12 loss vs. $0.17 loss is $0.02 narrower than S&P’s and Street’s estimate. Despite strides on differentiation, distribution and ads, we see further contraction of DirecTV (DTV 22.8***) channel undermining gains. After nearly 10% dilution on recent offering, we note TIVO’s wider-than-expected Jan-Q EBITDA loss guidance of $28M-$33M, mainly on higher marketing/rebate costs for holiday season. Meanwhile, final resolution on Echostar (DISH 35.9***) appeal of patent ruling does not seem imminent. Our target price falls by $1.50 to $6.50 on relative enterprise value/sales

I’m not the only skeptic.


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