Questions for TiVo

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Here are some answers I’d like to see from this week’s presentations:

The $.15/mo increase in net margin in the service business vs. 4Q06 includes the gains both in the advertising business and from higher monthly service pricing. Does the $.15 gain make up for the increase in SAC? Does the marketing strategy of recent quarters warrantĀ continuing and what is the calculation behind the answer?

How did you interpret the effect of advertising on Q4 sales results and how does that show more advertising in FY08 will improve sales efficiency and totals? Timing and size of ad spending?

Overall how will your plans for this year improve sales efficiency, and what is your definition of efficiency?

Details on inventory and channel stock. How will these boxes be moved in Q1?

Timelines on development and release of reduced cost HD unit? Details on features? Pricing and cost target(s)?

Early results of Q1 pricing strategy?

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5 Responses to “Questions for TiVo”

  1. HDTiVo Says:

    Rogers claims news subs at $12-13/mo

    Advertising Q4 up nicely over Q4 last year

  2. HDTiVo Says:

    Rogers confirms missed popular HD market with S3. Actually used word “disappointed.”

    Need cheaper unit. No timeline given.

  3. HDTiVo Says:

    Rogers provided very little new info in today’s presentation. The comment that new subs are coming in with ARPU of $12-13 is not really new, and that doesn’t figure in the APRU numbers from Q4 unless those higher ARPUs are the ones churning also, which I suspect will happen anyway.

    While he again brought up the argument that TiVo is the solution for the low end market and said TiVo found out something different than what the analysts told them last year, frankly the words he used did not say that that market wants a TiVo. The Sub Adds are showing that too.

    He spent time running down the same list of positives TiVo usually uses but clearly those have not been producing results.

    There was nothing to note on advertising business.

    It sounded like several thousand have signed up for TiVo Unbox – not a huge turnout so far. Rather unclear was his answer about revenues coming from there perhaps later in the year.

  4. HDTiVo Says:

    Nothing new on intellectual property, but decision time frame now sounds like Oct/Nov after oral argument around Sept. Mentioned IBM patents which TiVo paid for.

    TiVo believes Q4 results were better than expectations, but in reality the low Gross Ads were the cause, which is not helpful.

    Advertising showed nice improvement over 4Q06. This puts into question how much new subs are really raising ARPU.

  5. HDTiVo Says:

    I am left with the impression that TiVo plans to show improved financial results by limiting Gross Ads. This is a little like what Ramsey tried to do at the end, and was not a good idea either. How advertising spend figures into this makes no sense to me.

    In terms of drivers, Comcast is again mentioned, but that has to be judged against the lost DTV business.

    Also TiVo is saying as much as any public company might that their S3 is missing the market and they need a less expensive HD product.

    Bottom line is TiVo has a very good subscription business which is being sunk by its marketing costs, but I don’t believe their approach has any chance of improving the situation. If anything the overall picture may deteriorate this year.

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