TiVo Q2 Estimate

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I started estimating Q2 Gross Adds at 45-60K and took 55K as my pick. Slight optimism based on Father’s Day S3 deal and Lifetime S2DT deal.

I see no reason to change that, however I am not sure how TiVo reports Lifetime transfers in the GA/Churn numbers. I think TiVo did a decent number of these and if so, GAs and Churns could be slightly higher if they report it that way.

For the quarter, TiVo was stuck with the same problems it has had for some time. No boxes people want to buy, especially at the (all-in) price/terms. Too much uncertainty about the future usability of those units, though personally I downplay that issue a bit.

No Gross Adds are included for TiVo HD since TiVo says they won’t ship until August.

TiVo’s third quarter looks better to me. I think 65-85K gross adds are possible with the new TiVo HD helping offset some of the S2 declines. I am optimistic about the upper region of that range what with the launch at the beginning of the QTR and the initial (retail/box) price being reasonable. Still, all the same issues come up again; (all-in) price/terms, SDV …

A positive I haven’t fully factored in is the new availability of MSD monthly pricing from TiVo.com. Lifetime offers/sales could also help results.

If the new CMO turns out to be any good, he may be able to affect Q3 positively a bit. TiVo seems more active on the marketing front, and what I have seen lately is better than the past (but that doesn’t mean its good or won’t be a waste of money in the end.)

Another thing to consider is the availability of TTG/MRV (S3) which could happen during Q3. I believe there is substantial pent up demand for boxes pending S3 transfers, dependent of course on what is enabled, so I’ll update when whatever it is is official.

In the meantime, TiVo is loaded with all the S3s they are going to need through early 2008:

Jim Denny, vice president of product marketing for TiVo said he was unsure if TiVo was building new Series3 boxes, but believes existing inventory should keep the device available through the start of 2008.

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4 Responses to “TiVo Q2 Estimate”

  1. HDTiVo Says:

    Regarding digital media business at Amazon:

    Jeff Bezos

    It’s too early for us to discuss any of the traction we’re seeing . As you know, we have Amazon Unbox, which has downloadable videos, and have made arrangements with TiVo so that we can offer customers those videos directly to their TiVo Series 2 and Series 3 Internet-connected boxes.

    From the earnings call transcript.

  2. HDTiVo Says:

    By coincidence, Gizmodo just reviewed Unbox on TiVo

    http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/tivo/hands+on-tivo-unbox-movie-rentals-pc+free-282025.php

  3. HDTiVo Says:

    Reports at TCF are that TiVo HDs are physically shipping already.

    Beside this being an unusual upside to customer expectations for TiVo, Inc., this may mean some extra GAs booked for Q2.

    On the other hand, does the “rush” indicate Q2 was horrible and they were desperate to prop it up?

  4. HDTiVo Says:

    It appears at this point that some allowance will have to be made for TiVo HD Gross Adds. People have them in their hands from stores since yesterday, and others have shipping confirms to arrive before end of Q2.

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