A few quick observations on the TiVo 2Q


I am in the middle of going through the results, but I have a few observations so far:  

Comcast is rolling out about a month later, in September, so it will be miniscule for Q3.

Inventory is surprisingly high after $11.2M writedown. Looks like there are plenty of finished S2 boxes and a good number of S3s in the warehouse. It sounds like the writedown still leaves them at a high book value, leaving only modest room for margin improvement or price reductions.

TiVo was surprised by shift to HD. Not that different from prior statements since Q4, but the huge writedown shows they really just kept on going with SD parts/product commitments in the face of the SD decline. TiVo claims “others” were also surprised. I don’t know who they were, but I’m sure there are “others” as totally clueless as TiVo. For a year you couldn’t find an SD TV in a retail store unless you went through a maze into a corner where they keep the dusty, sad looking TVs with the broken chasis. :sarcastic:

Progressive download (streamloading) will only be available on HD platforms. This was a shock, but interpreting literally what Rogers said, that’s it.

The DVB-T international effort has the potential of reaching 100M households, making it a small factor in TiVo’s future. You don’t really believe they are suddenly going to succeed in 30 different foreign countries where they’ve flopped in the U.S., do you?  😉

Cablevision to distribute in Mexico this month. Don’t expect much, but maybe they can dump some S2s on some Mexicans before they get moldy.

My view of the patent litigation is that its going to fall short of the very lofty hopes many have. I think TiVo’s decision to drop part of the case and speed up the whole thing is an effort to preserve as much of the preliminary victory that they have. TiVo will probably get some money eventually, but don’t look into the 9th digit.

Rogers sounds as bad as always. I don’t know how the company lets him get away with his snow job to the outside world and horrendous performance within TiVo. Please, please, please…lose this guy…and this time don’t hire someone worse! TiVo: you are a complete joke and embarrasment to the outside world (esp. financial); get your reputation back with a solid leader.

As you can see, my review of this part of TiVo is not going so well; but could you expect anything else?


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