Mr. Rogers Presents

by

Tom Rogers presented today at Natixis Bleichroder, whoever they are.

The format was refreshingly different in that Rogers was asked questions rather than being allowed to get up there and simply drone out his usual tired, sad story.

Unfortunately, basically everything that came out was still just as tired and sad.

I just want to hit what is newish…

CableTiVo

Cox remains 6 months behind Comcast, thus there are Cox delays equivalent in time to Comcast’s. Roger’s says very soon for ComcasTiVO. I figure the first non-Comast employee will get it in November.

Regardless of this two month delay, the big picture in regards to time is the slow roll out which is necessary because there will be glitches along the way as the Comcast systems grow the sub base (unless the sub base grows so slowly that the glitches don’t show up.)  😉

Remember also that this is low revenue/profit per sub. I expect to model around $1.10-$1.40/mo/sub, but that’s not based on very solid info yet.

Rogers responded to questions on price and sub projections by saying Comcast will announce price and he does not have Comcast’s projections. Does he have his own? He skirted that part. If he’s not crowing about potential numbers, I sure won’t.  😉

E* Lit

Nada. 4-6 months typical time to decision.

TiVo HD

Hey, Tom, you’ve got a box that could sell, unlike the S3, what’s up?

Of course Rogers had to say yet again that TiVo and some others were caught by surprise…  Which others? The other losers? The rest of the others have been making hay while the sun’s been shinning.

By now Rogers should be able to give some color on actual TiVo HD sales but he is silent. He mentions only that the box was out early (I say too early based on bugs, but OK that got fixed in 1 month…) retailers love the price, and are focused on it with a new level of support. Just look at the displays he said.

I haven’t been out much lately, but if what I saw at Best Buy Sunday when I went in to replace a busted Netgear router is any indication, apparently a dark, hard to find aisle with no display or demo is the new level of retail support. I need to get out more I guess.

Continuing to avoid any real answer related to actual sales, he babbled about the “service” being important in selling the boxes, which of course it is not; its features and price/terms in a different way than he perceives “service.”

There was some chatter about TiVo as the Internet gateway to accessing all kinds of media. Rogers talked about unifying media access and search…the fact is Rogers has the lingo down, but the strategy is flawed and it is all going very slowly.

“Service” as a business

This is where it continues to get more and more surreal and I get to wondering if Rogers is in touch with reality at all.

Rogers continues to insist that somehow spending more on marketing – particularly the marketing (mediocre) they are doing – could lead to a financially successful SA business! That somehow SAC is going to be reduced, etc!!! NO WAY!

Shelf Offering

Which was raised last month to $100M. TiVo has no thoughts about using it at this time. That sounds like more than the usual no info before actual announcement, so maybe they really won’t go to the well for another year or so.

But the bizarre part is the statement that the cash expended on the SA business is being reduced. Well, how the heck ya gonna do that, Tom? You are ramping up that marketing expense which is all money straight out the window. You already sell hardly any S2s anymore – which create HW SAC. I guess if you sell hi def units and “written down” S2s that does it (heck the S2 inventories and parts have already been written off by $13M+, so no big trick there going forward.) So its probably all in the accounting, but accounting won’t put money in the bank.

Speaking of selling S2s, I want to personally thank Tom for not mentioning the analog cable market as an opportunity for TiVo, the only analog option, yet again.  🙂

DTV

This is nothing more than hope. I predict that only if CableTiVo does well will DTV start to care. Rogers’ comment that DTV will be watching is just that, watching.

E*/Sling

There was some general talk about the E*/Sling deal and how the price was so high compared to TiVo’s valuation. Well, Sling’s price reflects a company with vision and an interesting future. Get it? 😉

Then Rogers goes into marketing type fluff about how Tivoes work with Slings and all.  🙄

+++++++++++++++

There were no Q’s from the audience. Who was in the physical audience? Are they not interested?

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One Response to “Mr. Rogers Presents”

  1. Dave Zatz Says:

    The whispers are telling me late October/early November on the Comast TiVo being available in New England.

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