Moron TiVo’s Q3

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TiVo is giving a presentation on Dec 3, so maybe I’ll save my energy for after that.

This was not a bad QTR in that it showed the THD could be a well accepted product under the right conditions. TiVo probably sold 2.5-3X as many THDs as S3s last year, even with the bad pricing/terms for “service.” TiVo has changed its offer to new subscribers for Q4 back to what it was in 3Q07. This should benefit sales to new customers. However, MSD subs were sited as ticking up for THD and TiVo has reduced the desirability to the MSD price. I am concerned about that drag.

The metrics used to judge TiVo’s business improved – obvious evidence that the THD is an easier product to sell at $299 than what TiVo has had recently.  SAC comparisons improved YOY, GAs declined less on a percentage basis and SAC effiency didn’t look as bad. Make no mistake, everything was still negative, but not as negative.

TiVo now has a product people want to buy. So the marketing remains a problem.

The changes implemented for Q4 are positive signs for the future. TiVo will at the very least see great benefits from the parts they improved and that should help them realize they have to head further down that path.

Lifetime is extremely popular. I wonder that I misjudge its effect even at $399, but $399 is pretty stiff. There is probably a lot of pent up demand for it, but TiVo should lower that price later and make it universally available asap.

On other fronts, the resolution to the SDV problem is coming along in the time frame I thought it would when I said this summer that it was safe to jump into the water again. An OCAP box will be possible if/when it eventually becomes important to make one.

TiVo is making a little bit of progress on ad and measurement businesses, but nothing to get excited about.

TiVo seems to have a couple paying ComTiVo customers now. The whole thing is going to be buried into what was the DTV line, so figuring out CableSoftTiVo, Mexcio, DTV… will be tough. The rollout looks as slow and bumpy as you’d reasonably expect and there’s no sign yet of the effect/quality of marketing.

There is going to be a PC TiVo via Nero software (is it really pronounced Nay-Rho?) Not enough info there to make any judgement about that business yet.

I am encouraged by the indication of lower marketing spend for Q4. That and the change in plans indicate some adults have climbed Sugar Mountain and are exterting some influence.

Basically, Q3 shows moderate improvement at TiVo, particularly with regard to product offering. There is some hope for more improvement in Q4 and beyond.

Notes from call.

TiVo: Its time to say a little UNCLE

Mr. Rogers Presents

TiVo @ Maxim Group Growth Conference

Strategic Positioning – In Front of Your …

Current TiVo Pricing

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2 Responses to “Moron TiVo’s Q3”

  1. HDTiVo Says:

    Q4 showed the drag from MSD I was concerned about, and there is no sign of further progress I had hoped for.

  2. What´s Happening « HDTiVo Blog Says:

    […] are going so well ( :p ) at TiVo, Inc. that people just can´t wait to leave. Richardson made a couple minor changes to the subscription plans that I approved of, but this indicates things are going poorly over at TiVo, Inc. While I had […]

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